December 16, 2020
In today’s Recommendations for Industry, we discuss TAG’s COVID-19 Risk Matrix. Overall, while the rate of COVID-19 in the US has slowed, there has not been much of a decline. TAG recommends that preventive measures be continued and that employers encourage employees to “stay put” and not travel this upcoming holiday season.
The FDA is set to meet to discuss the Moderna vaccine. Data submitted by Moderna to the FDA shows the vaccine to be highly effective. Read the report here.
This Friday, Drs. David Acheson & Ben Miller will be rounding up the year with SafetyChain Software for a final FSMA Friday 2020, “Navigating COVID Complexity in 2021 to Stay Resilient,” to discuss up-to-the-minute facts, the truth about vaccines, ways you can minimize disruption, and what to expect from COVID-19 in the new year. Sign up now!
On Friday, we will answer more vaccine FAQs that we’ve received. To see our previous FAQs, please see our previous Archived posts!
Recommendations for Industry
TAG’s COVID-19 Risk Matrix Update December 15, 2020
Forty-three (43) states are in the High or Highest-Risk Quadrant (Outbreak Index > 50). This is up from last week’s 38 states. States in the High and Highest-Risk Quadrants are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Wyoming (Figure 1, Table 1).
Additionally, the U.S. Government Stringency Index remains at 47, the same as last week’s, indicating that stringent government regulations are in place. The average U.S. Mobility Index (Residential) has decreased to 8%, down from last week’s 9%, indicating that mobility has increased throughout the U.S.
Eleven (11) states’ (Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maine, North Carolina, New York, Vermont) businesses are in mixed opening stages. While eight (8) states’ (California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Washington) businesses are mostly closed.
Thirty-two (32) states have a TPR ≥10% and a case rate ≥ 25/100K people (Tables 2). This is down from 35 states last week. This indicates that testing may not be adequate to fully characterize the true severity of the outbreak in the states. On the other hand, 16 states and Washington D.C. have a TPR < 10% and a case rate≥ 25/100K people indicates inadequate testing that is likely finding most symptomatic cases of illnesses. This is up from 12 states last week.
Table 1. Case Rates per 100K in United States
Figure 1. Total Tests per 100K Population and Test Positive Rates
Table 2. Test Positive Rates v Case Rates
In Case You Missed It...
We are starting a regular COVID-19 Vaccine Q&A to answer your questions and keep you updated as we move into the next vaccination phase of the pandemic.
In Monday’s Recommendations for Industry, we provide an overview of vaccines along with status of the current COVID-19 vaccines developed or in development. Read the brief below, then link to the paper for the full story.
As COVID-19 cases in the US top15 million and continue to surge, the CDC put out thoughts on travel related to the upcoming Holiday Travel Season:
Travel can increase your chance of spreading and getting COVID-19. Postponing travel and staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others.
You and your travel companions (including children) may feel well and not have any symptoms, but you can still spread COVID-19 to family, friends, and community after travel.
Don’t travel if you are sick or test positive for COVID-19. Don’t travel with someone who is sick.
Keep up to date with COVID-19:
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