COVID-19 Resources

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October 14, 2020

Recommendations for Industry

Risk Matrix Update: Week of October 13, 2020

Nearly All U.S. States Trending Upward

The Acheson Group’s U.S. Risk Matrix has calculated an Outbreak Index using a series of variables that include Test Positive Rates, Effective Rates of Transmissions, and Social Distancing Values. Through this, the Risk Matrix identifies states in various quadrants from Lower Risk to Highest-Risk.


As of October 13, 2020, 22 states are in the Highest-Risk Quadrant (Outbreak Index > 50). This is up from 17 last week. States in the Highest-Risk Quadrant are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.


This past week, the average U.S. social index value increased from 27 (last week) to 29 (this week), indicating a decrease in mobility throughout the U.S.


As shown in Table 1, TAG has calculated that 13 states have a TPR greater than 10% indicating they have inadequate testing and/or increasing case counts. These states are:

  • Wyoming: 24%

  • Idaho and South Dakota: 23%

  • Wisconsin: 20%

  • Iowa: 19%

  • Kansas: 17%

  • Nevada: 16%

  • Indiana: 15%

  • Alabama, Utah, and Montana: 14%

  • Nebraska: 13%

  • Florida: 12%

Table 1


We also have displayed a table the past 4 weeks of case rates/100,000 persons per state, showing how outbreaks may be expanding and/or contracting in different states (Table 2). Case rate information is useful for identifying trends over a 2- to 4-week period. This information allows for relative risk comparisons to be made among regions and plants. This analysis calculates a 7-day rolling average of the number of cases per 100,000 people in the regions. A case rate >25 would indicate that an outbreak is uncontrolled and strict measures be undertaken to ensure safety of site and/or people (as highlighted in red with red text on the graph).

Total Tests per 100k Population and Test Positive Rates - U.S. 10/2020

Table 2

Covid-19 Case Rate per 100,000 - 7 day average

Table 3, as calculated by TAG, shows states where the TPR is greater than 25/100K indicating inadequate testing and an inability to capture the severity of the outbreak in their states. States where the TPR is less than 10%, but the case rate is greater than 15/100K, indicates adequate testing and significant outbreaks.

Table 3

TPR greater than or equal to 10% and case rate greater than or equal to 25/100k
Outbreak Updates

As of October 14, 2020 (1:39 ET), there are over >38,304,172  cases (>1,088,704 deaths) worldwide.

Due to the increasing number of cases in the United States, TAG will move from reporting counts per country to focus on the United States, please see here for the data. For further information regarding worldwide numbers, please refer to John Hopkin University’s aggregate map.

Keep up to date with COVID-19:

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